People Power

.
Just wondering out loud - where will this all lead?

A few questions I have are:

1. What will victory look like?

2. What is Thaksin's future role?

3. Why has it taken Thaksin so long to start talking?

4. Is Thaksin really into the spirit of democracy?

5. If there is a dissolution, who will be the next PM

6. How will the cycle of protests ever end?

Clarification: The above questions are posed to a hypothetical scenario under which the current 'red' shirts achieve 'victory'.

I'm really struggling to come up with the answers to #1 and #2 because it sounds like the Reds basically want to turn back the clock to 2005/06 pre coup days - Does that mean victory means more tax havens, nominees, extra-judicial killings, manipulations of the institutions, and subversion of checks and balances???


I think the answer to #3 is fairly obvious - Thaksin only started talking because he was running out of options, and saw this as his last opportunity to make a push to get back the money.

I also don't think we should discount the 'loss of face' motivation - from my observations of Thai politics over two decades, avoidance of loss of face seems to rank right up there with that other motivating force for politicians: Greed.

For some reason, amongst politicians, especially the Thai variety, loss of face is seen as a sign of weakness, when in other circles the ability to admit mistakes is seen as a strength.

If the 'greed' and 'aversion to loss of face' characteristics were not so strong, then it seems fairly obvious that Thaksin would still be in power.
(although whether he would have got there in the first place without those motivators is another question!)

Unfortunately Thaksin has taken a long time to learn that lesson (if he has at all) and his two puppet PM successors also met similar fates due in no small part to failing to concede anything for fear of losing face/appearing weak.

Now Abhisit is walking the same path, when if only he had conceded on some points (like getting rid of Kasit for instance), then Thaksin would have found it much harder to garner mass support for the current uprising.

IMO, Thaksin had no excuses - with his unassailable electoral superiority he was the master of his own destiny , but Abhisit has been hamstrung by the way he came to power, the GFC, and having the Generals, Prem, Newin, PAD, Reds, Thaksin etc all breathing down his neck has had him walking a tightrope just waiting for the inevitable stumble.


If my answer to question #3 is correct, then the answer to #4 is also obvious.


Who will be the next PM if there are new elections? - you would think it would be a small field with the 111 still banned, but it seems to me the next PM will have to be a puppet of one or other of two prominent members of that banned list.
Whether it is a puppet of Thaksin or Newin will probably depend on how well their respective nominee parties do in the next election.


That leaves the big one: How will the cycle of protests ever end?

If we can extrapolate the motivating forces for the majority of politicians across to the military, business & royalist elites, then neither side will give up unless:

(a) they are adequately compensated under some sort of deal, which also needs to allow them to save face,
or
(b) they suffer such a crushing defeat that they are obliterated and have no hope of fighting back for decades (if ever).

This time it is unlikely to be the 'reds' that are obliterated, but dismantling the old network without replacing it with a new one, is not what I think Thaksin has in mind.


The above is all my perception of reality, so now here's something to dream about:

- Abhisit realizes that the majority of the Thai electorate want change, and he (they) also realize that going back to Thaksin is a dead end, so he (the Democrats) fully acknowledges the problems and goes to the electorate seeking a mandate to bring about that change, and is rewarded by the electorate (in good faith).

That dream can be added to the one I have about the succession where:
- Having acquired wisdom with maturity, the prince recognizes that his past actions make him unsuitable to be king and he withdraws in favor of his sister. Brother and sister work together to groom the prince’s children for the role after the princess’s reign ends.

Thaksin embraces Sufficiency Economy

.
In addition to being a strong supporter of Democracy, my new guru is also a strong advocate for Sufficiency Economy:

'Deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra last night phoned in to extend moral support to the demonstrators and asked them to stay put for three more days.
"Tell your children to come," he told the crowd. "There is something here. Stop going to the mall for a couple of days and lay the foundation for future generations.
"I do not care whether I can return, I do not care. I cannot allow the country to go on like this.
"Let me be the last victim of the brutality of the bureaucratic polity."Thaksin also spoke in English to appeal to the international media, saying the fight was not about him but about the country and democracy for the people and future generations.'

At the sime time it was widely reported that Thaksin's own children had left the country - hopefully not to go shopping!

Kasit confirms he is an embarrassment and a disgrace

.
Kasit elevates Thaksin to Dalai Lama status - it seems like I've been looking in the wrong direction for my spiritual and philosophical guidance!

Thaksin's status to be clarified
By: BangkokPost.com
Published: 6/04/2009 at 02:11 PM

Foreign Affairs Minister Kasit Piromya plans to clarify the status of outlawed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to foreign ambassadors to Thailand on Wednesday.
Mr Kasit said on Monday that he felt uncomfortable that Thaksin was allowed to use some countries as a base to criticise Thailand.
The government had continually liaised with with Cambodia to find out if Thaksin could be residing there, he said.
Mr Kasit likened Thaksin's case to the Dalai Lama's, as the Chinese government does not want him to use other countries as a base to criticise Beijing.
The minister also instructed Thai ambassadors abroad to explain what Thaksin had done to Thailand to countries without an extradition treaty with the kingdom.
Mr Kasit said many countries already refused to allow Thaksin to use them as a stage to attack Thailand.

Above politics, and without compassion???

.
We all know the mantra:
- Constitutional monarchy should not (and does not) interfere in political matters.

That’s very commendable, and they are correct to leave politics to the politicians and the people who elect them.

However, here’s something to ponder:

Does the inaction (silence) by the monarchy, whilst people are being jailed in their name, actually amount to a political act?

In my view, continued silence whilst a Thai citizen is jailed for 10 years for distributing photos about them (reduced from 20 years because he pleaded guilty!) must surely put a nail in the coffin of any argument that the Thai monarchy is benevolent and above politics.

I don’t know what the photos were, but the only way I can see that the distribution of them would warrant a 10 or 20 year jail sentence would be if they involved child pornography or paedophilia – surely no one is suggesting the monarchy would be involved in such matters!
Suwicha Thakor is not the only person facing lengthy jail sentences for allegedly offending the monarchy – here’s a list from PPT.

If they continue to remain silent about these injustices, it could be argued that it is the monarchy who is offending all those who believe in their great institution.

PS. I wonder how many years jail this blog post deserves?

UPDATE: The other conclusion that could be reached is that the monarchy are powerless, helpless, captives unable to do anything about the injustices being committed in their names.
Which is the actuality is unknown, and the reality could even be some where in between both extremes???
It reminds me a bit of why I don't believe in the christian God - if 'he' really did exist then 'he' would have to be one sick bastard to allow some of the shit that happens in this world.

It's been fun (well, sort of.....)

.
In her last comment, Joy said: "Lately, however,most of us do not post much anymore..perhaps everyone gets a bit worn out by the repetitive pattern of things???".

Thanks for the great comments, Joy.

What's needed is for people to let go of preconcieved ideas and be more open to other viewpoints in the debate and discussion.

That applies not only to Thais but also to many of the various foreign academics (and bloggers) who have weighed into the disputes.

Most of us wish for the best for Thailand, but usually it is in our own way without due consideration of others who see things differently.

I tend to focus on Thaksin, because I find it hard to accept so many people idolising him, when in my eyes he is clearly ethically and morally suspect, and therefore not suitable PM material.

However, at the same time I abhor the military and poo yai network, and the corruption that pervades every level of thai society.

Anyway, I don't live in Thailand, and am never likely to, so it's not my problem, and it's really up to those closer to the country to find the solutions (and live with them).

Personally, I like the concept of Sufficiency Economy, but it obviously should not be mandated as policy for a whole country, and rather should be seen as sensible advice for individuals (and even corporations).

I also admire much about Chamlong and the Santi Asoke movement, particularly the vegetarianism, organic farming, work ethic and what I consider a more rational view of Buddhism, however I abhor the cultish aspects of the group.

Overall, in the 'red' v 'yellow dispute' I sympathize with the old yellows who wanted to stop a new demagogue becoming entrenched in Thailand, however the means used to achieve that were ultimately wrong.

I also sympathize with the 'reds', however UNFORTUNATELY I suspect if they ever see through, and see past, Thaksin, it will be a greatly reduced (minority) movement.

As for the lese majeste laws - I think the Strekfuss proposal of only having the charge made by or with consent of the palace is the obvious solutions as it respects the monarchy and at the same time would eliminate most of the problems with the law.

Anyway, I'm currently trying to withdraw from the scene, but like an addict I may keep coming back for a few 'hits' now and then.

Blueprint for world peace

(possibly my last rant, as the lack of logic in the Thai political debate has finally worn me down, and there are better things I can spend my time on - I might post the odd comment here and there, but I really do need a new hobby!)


Suwicha Thakhor says:
“Thais are starting to think new things, have new ideas,” he said. “I don’t belong in jail. If we disagree about politics, we must talk to find a solution.”

That's the problem - too many people are not interested in talking - they wish to stubbornly stick to their own preconceived ideas, and either ignore (or crush) any opposing viewpoints.

Obviously, not all Thai's are stubbornly ignorant, but there are enough of them to make any progress on political reform, and human rights issues, excruciatingly slow.

This wilful ignorance can be seen on both sides of the fence, but it is far worse on the 'yellow' side, than on the 'red' side.

On the 'red' side the most blatant ignorance relates to the way they wear their rose colored glasses regarding Thaksin - they either don't know, or don't care, or simply choose to overlook Thaksin's obvious ethical and moral wrongdoings and manipulations:
-tax avoidance through the use of nominees and tax havens, human rights issues such as the war on drugs, Tak Bai etc, media intimidation, manipulation of various institutions to his ends and general policy corruption.....

At least the 'reds' have some excuse for their ignorance - firstly they have less access to quality education, and secondly they genuinely appreciated the efforts that Thaksin (Thai Rak Thai) made to improve their lot, such as the 30 baht health scheme initiative and the village revolving credit initiative.
*Here I am talking about the old Thaksin loving 'reds' - I'm not holding my breath, but there is a slight sliver of a chance that the new 'reds' will move beyond Thaksin and become a genuine democratic movement, instead of operating under the old client-patron model.
A lot will depend on it's leadership, but IMO if people like Jakrapob still hang on to Thaksin's coattails, then that transformation will take a long time to happen (if at all).

Giles shows quite a lot of promise, but he too, IMO, shows wilful ignorance - mainly due to his habit of interpreting or twisting things, or events, to suit his preconceived ideas (from his Marxist view of the world). He and the democracy movement would be better served by being more open and accepting to other viewpoints and possible explanations of events.

On the other hand, the 'yellows' have very little excuse for their ignorance (other than decades of propaganda!)
Here, I am referring specifically to the current, remaining 'yellows' as, IMO, the original PAD supporters of 3 years ago had genuine grievances against Thaksin, and many were sincere in wanting a better (democratic) government.
Many 'yellows' have had access to much better education than the poor masses, and most of them, especially the PAD leaders, should know better than the hate talk they have been spewing for the last several months.
I'm not even sure whether it is ignorance in their case, or rather something much more sinister - in addition to nationalistic rants and personal vilification, they have also been disingenuous in bringing up many of Thaksin's wrongdoings, when in reality they seem to find those things quite acceptable, as long as the ones doing it are part of their old club, and not some new demagogue like Thaksin.

The political parties continue to be a major obstacle to genuine democracy - the old, Banharm style, patron led, parties are hopeless.
The Democrats, whilst they are more 'presentable', are still a major disappointment, and they owe way too much to a certain (banned from politics for 5 years) kingmaker who just happens to be sitting in the box seat for possible musical chairs in the future.
That leaves Puea Thai Party (PTP) - it's probably still operating under the patron model judging by the close involvement of the Shinawatra clan. If Chalerm as likely leader isn't enough to put you off, just have a look at the seven impeachment/censure points against Abhisit to give you an idea of their potential:
- Being involved in calling for royal intervention to appoint a prime minister as per Article 7 of the suspended 1997 charter, "proof" of anti-democracy and a link to the People's Alliance for Democracy, which sought changes via non-parliamentary means.
- Grabbing power by illegitimate means with the support of certain leading figures, so a minority usurped power from the majority.
- Acting like a mastermind or an accomplice for the PAD - even though its activities have been illegal - and obstructing democracy under the King as head of state.
- Intentional evasion of the organic law on political parties, by involvement in the cover-up of financial contributions made by a listed public company, and by failing to properly spend the party subsidy received from the Election Commission.
- Failure to uphold territorial integrity, as enshrined in Article 1 of the Constitution, evidenced by a neighbouring country constructing a road inside Thai territory to access Preah Vihear Temple.
- Falsifying a Democrat membership for Thanin Jaisamut, as per the document sent to Satun electoral office on April 20, 2008, even though Thanin was banned by the Election Commission and hence not qualified for party membership.
- Graft violation by instructing Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij to organise a campaign for SMS messaging via mobile phone operators. This cost millions of baht, but operators waived the charges, tantamount to demanding and accepting undue benefits, a graft offence as per Article 103 of the anti-graft law.


The picture is even worse when you take into account the partisan nature of many NGO's, and judging by the frequent calls for Buddhism to be named as the state religion we cannot even rely upon the Buddhist establishment for some sanity.

The picture is already bleak enough, so I will even not bother commenting on the military or the police, or the thing that might one day blow everyone out of the water, the southern insurgency.


In closing, here is an exchange from the recent Oxford event with Giles - it went something like this:
(it is around the 50 minute mark if you would like to listen for yourselves)

Question from the floor: 'When you said about the Crown Prince and his wife and you said everyone in Thailand has access to a computer, I myself was in Thailand before and I had access to a computer and I haven't see that picture. And the fact that you mentioned about that picture is no proof you didn't even see it for yourself....'

Giles: 'Give me your email and I'll send it to you'

Response back from the questioner: 'Well I don't wish to see it!'

Giles: 'Yeah, right'

I rest my case.
.