Abhisit: I told you so!

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The Abhisit governments handling of security matters for the ASEAN summit can only be described as a sick joke.

The need to avoid bloodshed is a lame excuse when it comes to blatant lawlessness.

The previous PPP governments were hamstrung in dealing with the PAD because they were scared of any incidents that would derail their ultimate goal of whitewashing Thaksin, and deep down they knew they had not addressed the genuine concerns of the PAD.

Now the Abhisit government has also been hamstrung by a guilty conscience about the way the coalition came about, and the fact that they know they had not properly addressed the genuine concerns of the reds.

Abhisit - mate, if only you read my blog, I could have saved you a lot of trouble!

Here's a reminder of what I advised back in January and February:
"Just like the PPP led government failed to act in a reasonable and competent manner, this current Democrat led government is doing the same.
Abhisit appears reasonable with his smooth talking, but it's actions that count in the long run.
The handling of the Rohingya issue looks bad from an outsiders perspective, but I could imagine it would have been handled even worse by a Samak or Thaksin PM.
(It should also be remembered that the initial boat people incident happened in December when the new government had just taken over, so it could hardly be Democrat policy that caused the scandal)
There are, however, other things that the Democrat led government has had more control over, and it is the handling of those matters that has shown that they are hardly any better than their predecessors:
- Kasit as FM
(his past words mean he has to go, and they have missed their opportunity to do it quietly in the interests of reconciliation)
- PAD leaders to be held accountable
(even if the airport occupation charges are still being investigated, surely there are still outstanding charges from the government house occupation that can be acted upon in the meantime - IMO, getting Sondhi L in jail will go a long way towards moving the country forward)
- Lese Majeste & Internet crackdown
(looked at on it's own, without consideration of the political realities, the Democrats handling of this matter has been disgraceful - IMO, they should be setting a positive example and leading the debate on how to have the LM laws changed so that the monarchy can be kept out of politics)
- Reconciliation, Political/Constitutional reform
(on this matter, the Democrats have again let political considerations get in the way of simply doing what's right - IMO, they should work with the opposition to get a satisfactory amnesty bill and to get a consultative process going for constitutional reform)
This is what I said when Samak was removed:
"Samak is gone - even though the cooking show trigger for his demise was nonsensical, I wont be shedding a tear for him - had his chances to be reasonable, he wasn't, so I say good riddance!"
It is not hard to foresee a day when I will be saying something similar for Abhisit.



OK, I will try again. Here's my new advice to you - assuming you are still in power as I write this, and assuming of course, that you are now ready to start listening to me :)

1. Kasit must go (you now have another opportunity to do it, in the interests of reconciliation)

2. You must agree to liaise with the opposition regarding the amnesty bill
(basically the 111 banned politicians to have their political rights reinstated, draw a line in the sand and give blanket amnesty to all protest leaders except any who can be directly implicated in any criminal activity, and also to the pending LM & Computer crime cases)

3. Initiate a complete round of political reform, including using the 1997 constitution as the starting point, but also including amendments to the LM and Computer Crime laws, looking at and concisely defining the role of the privy council, implementing a strict permit system for future protests (to put some rules in place as so that the never ending supply of gullible and bloody minded protesters can be kept in check otherwise no government will ever be able to do anything) - surely there are enough great unbiased minds in Thailand that can come up with something appropriate, but if there are still contentious items then they will need to go to a referendum

4. Set a strict, but realistic timetable for the above political reform process, including a date for the next election to be held as soon as the new rules are in place.

5. Request that all parties/sides/colors take a step back from protesting, and invite them to instead get involved in the political reform process.

6. Strictly implement rule of law without fear or favour

7. Thaksin???? - I'm thinking that he is a special case and a negotiated settlement needs to be reached with him, but who does the negotiating? Off the top of my head, the best solution I can come up with is a special act of parliament requiring say 75% approval.
(it will mainly need to be a financial settlement, however the amount might depend on whether he enters binding commitments relating to the extent of his future political involvement).


As usual, its just general rambling to get it off my chest, and the real experts would need to work out ways to facilitate the legalities.

People Power

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Just wondering out loud - where will this all lead?

A few questions I have are:

1. What will victory look like?

2. What is Thaksin's future role?

3. Why has it taken Thaksin so long to start talking?

4. Is Thaksin really into the spirit of democracy?

5. If there is a dissolution, who will be the next PM

6. How will the cycle of protests ever end?

Clarification: The above questions are posed to a hypothetical scenario under which the current 'red' shirts achieve 'victory'.

I'm really struggling to come up with the answers to #1 and #2 because it sounds like the Reds basically want to turn back the clock to 2005/06 pre coup days - Does that mean victory means more tax havens, nominees, extra-judicial killings, manipulations of the institutions, and subversion of checks and balances???


I think the answer to #3 is fairly obvious - Thaksin only started talking because he was running out of options, and saw this as his last opportunity to make a push to get back the money.

I also don't think we should discount the 'loss of face' motivation - from my observations of Thai politics over two decades, avoidance of loss of face seems to rank right up there with that other motivating force for politicians: Greed.

For some reason, amongst politicians, especially the Thai variety, loss of face is seen as a sign of weakness, when in other circles the ability to admit mistakes is seen as a strength.

If the 'greed' and 'aversion to loss of face' characteristics were not so strong, then it seems fairly obvious that Thaksin would still be in power.
(although whether he would have got there in the first place without those motivators is another question!)

Unfortunately Thaksin has taken a long time to learn that lesson (if he has at all) and his two puppet PM successors also met similar fates due in no small part to failing to concede anything for fear of losing face/appearing weak.

Now Abhisit is walking the same path, when if only he had conceded on some points (like getting rid of Kasit for instance), then Thaksin would have found it much harder to garner mass support for the current uprising.

IMO, Thaksin had no excuses - with his unassailable electoral superiority he was the master of his own destiny , but Abhisit has been hamstrung by the way he came to power, the GFC, and having the Generals, Prem, Newin, PAD, Reds, Thaksin etc all breathing down his neck has had him walking a tightrope just waiting for the inevitable stumble.


If my answer to question #3 is correct, then the answer to #4 is also obvious.


Who will be the next PM if there are new elections? - you would think it would be a small field with the 111 still banned, but it seems to me the next PM will have to be a puppet of one or other of two prominent members of that banned list.
Whether it is a puppet of Thaksin or Newin will probably depend on how well their respective nominee parties do in the next election.


That leaves the big one: How will the cycle of protests ever end?

If we can extrapolate the motivating forces for the majority of politicians across to the military, business & royalist elites, then neither side will give up unless:

(a) they are adequately compensated under some sort of deal, which also needs to allow them to save face,
or
(b) they suffer such a crushing defeat that they are obliterated and have no hope of fighting back for decades (if ever).

This time it is unlikely to be the 'reds' that are obliterated, but dismantling the old network without replacing it with a new one, is not what I think Thaksin has in mind.


The above is all my perception of reality, so now here's something to dream about:

- Abhisit realizes that the majority of the Thai electorate want change, and he (they) also realize that going back to Thaksin is a dead end, so he (the Democrats) fully acknowledges the problems and goes to the electorate seeking a mandate to bring about that change, and is rewarded by the electorate (in good faith).

That dream can be added to the one I have about the succession where:
- Having acquired wisdom with maturity, the prince recognizes that his past actions make him unsuitable to be king and he withdraws in favor of his sister. Brother and sister work together to groom the prince’s children for the role after the princess’s reign ends.

Thaksin embraces Sufficiency Economy

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In addition to being a strong supporter of Democracy, my new guru is also a strong advocate for Sufficiency Economy:

'Deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra last night phoned in to extend moral support to the demonstrators and asked them to stay put for three more days.
"Tell your children to come," he told the crowd. "There is something here. Stop going to the mall for a couple of days and lay the foundation for future generations.
"I do not care whether I can return, I do not care. I cannot allow the country to go on like this.
"Let me be the last victim of the brutality of the bureaucratic polity."Thaksin also spoke in English to appeal to the international media, saying the fight was not about him but about the country and democracy for the people and future generations.'

At the sime time it was widely reported that Thaksin's own children had left the country - hopefully not to go shopping!

Kasit confirms he is an embarrassment and a disgrace

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Kasit elevates Thaksin to Dalai Lama status - it seems like I've been looking in the wrong direction for my spiritual and philosophical guidance!

Thaksin's status to be clarified
By: BangkokPost.com
Published: 6/04/2009 at 02:11 PM

Foreign Affairs Minister Kasit Piromya plans to clarify the status of outlawed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to foreign ambassadors to Thailand on Wednesday.
Mr Kasit said on Monday that he felt uncomfortable that Thaksin was allowed to use some countries as a base to criticise Thailand.
The government had continually liaised with with Cambodia to find out if Thaksin could be residing there, he said.
Mr Kasit likened Thaksin's case to the Dalai Lama's, as the Chinese government does not want him to use other countries as a base to criticise Beijing.
The minister also instructed Thai ambassadors abroad to explain what Thaksin had done to Thailand to countries without an extradition treaty with the kingdom.
Mr Kasit said many countries already refused to allow Thaksin to use them as a stage to attack Thailand.

Above politics, and without compassion???

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We all know the mantra:
- Constitutional monarchy should not (and does not) interfere in political matters.

That’s very commendable, and they are correct to leave politics to the politicians and the people who elect them.

However, here’s something to ponder:

Does the inaction (silence) by the monarchy, whilst people are being jailed in their name, actually amount to a political act?

In my view, continued silence whilst a Thai citizen is jailed for 10 years for distributing photos about them (reduced from 20 years because he pleaded guilty!) must surely put a nail in the coffin of any argument that the Thai monarchy is benevolent and above politics.

I don’t know what the photos were, but the only way I can see that the distribution of them would warrant a 10 or 20 year jail sentence would be if they involved child pornography or paedophilia – surely no one is suggesting the monarchy would be involved in such matters!
Suwicha Thakor is not the only person facing lengthy jail sentences for allegedly offending the monarchy – here’s a list from PPT.

If they continue to remain silent about these injustices, it could be argued that it is the monarchy who is offending all those who believe in their great institution.

PS. I wonder how many years jail this blog post deserves?

UPDATE: The other conclusion that could be reached is that the monarchy are powerless, helpless, captives unable to do anything about the injustices being committed in their names.
Which is the actuality is unknown, and the reality could even be some where in between both extremes???
It reminds me a bit of why I don't believe in the christian God - if 'he' really did exist then 'he' would have to be one sick bastard to allow some of the shit that happens in this world.

It's been fun (well, sort of.....)

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In her last comment, Joy said: "Lately, however,most of us do not post much anymore..perhaps everyone gets a bit worn out by the repetitive pattern of things???".

Thanks for the great comments, Joy.

What's needed is for people to let go of preconcieved ideas and be more open to other viewpoints in the debate and discussion.

That applies not only to Thais but also to many of the various foreign academics (and bloggers) who have weighed into the disputes.

Most of us wish for the best for Thailand, but usually it is in our own way without due consideration of others who see things differently.

I tend to focus on Thaksin, because I find it hard to accept so many people idolising him, when in my eyes he is clearly ethically and morally suspect, and therefore not suitable PM material.

However, at the same time I abhor the military and poo yai network, and the corruption that pervades every level of thai society.

Anyway, I don't live in Thailand, and am never likely to, so it's not my problem, and it's really up to those closer to the country to find the solutions (and live with them).

Personally, I like the concept of Sufficiency Economy, but it obviously should not be mandated as policy for a whole country, and rather should be seen as sensible advice for individuals (and even corporations).

I also admire much about Chamlong and the Santi Asoke movement, particularly the vegetarianism, organic farming, work ethic and what I consider a more rational view of Buddhism, however I abhor the cultish aspects of the group.

Overall, in the 'red' v 'yellow dispute' I sympathize with the old yellows who wanted to stop a new demagogue becoming entrenched in Thailand, however the means used to achieve that were ultimately wrong.

I also sympathize with the 'reds', however UNFORTUNATELY I suspect if they ever see through, and see past, Thaksin, it will be a greatly reduced (minority) movement.

As for the lese majeste laws - I think the Strekfuss proposal of only having the charge made by or with consent of the palace is the obvious solutions as it respects the monarchy and at the same time would eliminate most of the problems with the law.

Anyway, I'm currently trying to withdraw from the scene, but like an addict I may keep coming back for a few 'hits' now and then.