Saturday, September 20, 2008

Samak gone, now it's Somchai's turn

Let's continue to play this game, and assume that PPP is a political party with the main aim of governing for the benefit of the country and it's people.

Samak is gone - even though the cooking show trigger for his demise was nonsensical, I wont be shedding a tear for him - had his chances to be reasonable, he wasn't, so I say good riddance!

Now Somchai steps up to the plate - let's hope the real Somchai has some substance, and he will not just be the 'brother in law' or the 'husband'.

PPP still have the opportunity to govern, a coup is very unlikely, and they still have the electoral majority card up their sleeve - The ball is in their court - the choice they have is whether to govern for the people, or govern for Thaksin.

The PAD can agitate as much as they like, but it wont come to anything unless the government provides a trigger.

For Thaksin it was the tax free Shin corp sale - Somchai (or his successor) merely continuing pro-poor policies would not provide such a trigger, nor would consultative constitutional amendments.

If they steer clear of interfering in the Thaksin cases, and are seen to be moderately competent in dealing with issues as they arise, it will be very difficult for 'elites' or 'third forces' to engineer their downfall.

It's too early to tell whether Somchai will be a success - his conciliatory tone is a welcome change to Samak's bluster, but the message is mixed if reports of a delegation sent to London to get Thaksin's tick of approval are true.

Will Thaksin be advising his brother in law that revocation of the diplomatic passports would be a good move?

Just like with Samak, I'm hopeful that Somchai is the right man for Thailand at this point in time, and am prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt, until his actions prove otherwise.