Thaksin

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Now that the crackdown appears to have started can we expect Thaksin to arrive as promised to lead the charge?

I think he would be better served calling for a tactical retreat so that the reds can regain (maintain?) the moral high ground - they can always regroup if the current government refuses to acknowledge that political reform is an imperative and cannot be delayed.

Update: As the DTV communications seem to have been cut, I'm not sure how a retreat could be organized in any case, and who knows where the other leaders of the reds are right now.
(actually, for that matter who knows where Abhisit, Suthep, Newin & Co are right now???)


If they choose the other route and abuse their position of power there inevitably will be a backlash.
(this applies to whichever side has power at any point in time)

ASTV - Disgusting!

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Anyone else noticed the difference in demeanor of the ASTV presenters between yesterday (Sunday) and today (Monday)?

Yesterday: The thing they most reminded me of were the election night tv shows - THE ASTV presenters looked just like those representatives of the losing party as they realize they have lost the election.

Today: They are positively gloating, beaming, smiling, almost jumping out of their seats.

DISGUSTING!!!!!

If they think this is all over they are deluding themselves - Thailand and the world has changed and the choice is either more Democracy or become a Burma.
(if they want a Burma, then why dont they just go live there, and leave Thailand for the sane & sensible!)




All media is biased to some extent, but I absolutely abhor completely biased media that refuses to present the other side of the story and instead tries to distort it.

UPDATE: One of the best examples of controlled spin in the blogosphere is Political Prisoners in Thailand where they continually put their slant on political happenings, without even allowing any comments to present a different viewpoint - they would better served sticking to the political prisoners & LM side of things otherwise that will be undermined by their blatant bias in their political agenda.

On the reds side, Jakrapob is also a master of spin and distortion.

A crackdown will just delay the inevitable - DONT DO IT!

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Abhisit: My advice to you from yesterday still stands, however I would add the following:

8. Do not even attempt a crackdown, instead propose a joint interim national reconciliation government made up of Democrats and PT equally, and ask all protesters to go home pending political reform

9. Ask everyone to enjoy Songkran and have a break from all the angst

LIVE UPDATE 1:
(it's going to be a long night!)

Both Bangkok Post & Nation are reporting Abhisit says force will be used.

I can imagine the loss of face that Abhisit is feeling, and can also imagine the urgings he is getting to crack heads.
I'm appealing to Abhisits better instincts and suggest it is time to ignore the Suthep, Prem's & Newins of this world (look where listening to them has got you!)
Abhisit - please accept that this is Thai history in the making, and its your choice whether you will be on the right or wrong side of it.
If ever we need ObaMark it's now!

Maybe its unrealistic, but I'm assuming Abhisit still does have control over his own actions.

BTW, I have no idea whats really going on - I'm watching DTV, NBT and ASTV and guessing the rest.

LIVE UPDATE 2:

The regular political bloggers like Bankkok Pundit, Thai Crisis, TJTS etc seem to have been conspicuously quiet over the last 2 hours - it makes me think they have lost internet, because normally I can rely on them
New: Pundit just posted a comment here (nothings hapened) , so I guess it's just a waiting game. I will stop live blogging and leave it to the experts!

From where I'm sitting DTV is still showing the speeches on the red stage - this is the best link I have.

The most recent twitter updates are here, but I suspect, like me, they are outside Thailand

I still find it hard to imagine a crackdown due to the sheer numbers of reds, and the whole world still watching over the internet.
It is a bit of a worry that things from Thailand seem to be so quiet, and a lot will depend on what's going on at the palace - I'm not going to speculate one way or the other, except to say I'm sure this is the last thing I would want to be seeing if I was the King, especially at his age.

Abhisit: I told you so!

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The Abhisit governments handling of security matters for the ASEAN summit can only be described as a sick joke.

The need to avoid bloodshed is a lame excuse when it comes to blatant lawlessness.

The previous PPP governments were hamstrung in dealing with the PAD because they were scared of any incidents that would derail their ultimate goal of whitewashing Thaksin, and deep down they knew they had not addressed the genuine concerns of the PAD.

Now the Abhisit government has also been hamstrung by a guilty conscience about the way the coalition came about, and the fact that they know they had not properly addressed the genuine concerns of the reds.

Abhisit - mate, if only you read my blog, I could have saved you a lot of trouble!

Here's a reminder of what I advised back in January and February:
"Just like the PPP led government failed to act in a reasonable and competent manner, this current Democrat led government is doing the same.
Abhisit appears reasonable with his smooth talking, but it's actions that count in the long run.
The handling of the Rohingya issue looks bad from an outsiders perspective, but I could imagine it would have been handled even worse by a Samak or Thaksin PM.
(It should also be remembered that the initial boat people incident happened in December when the new government had just taken over, so it could hardly be Democrat policy that caused the scandal)
There are, however, other things that the Democrat led government has had more control over, and it is the handling of those matters that has shown that they are hardly any better than their predecessors:
- Kasit as FM
(his past words mean he has to go, and they have missed their opportunity to do it quietly in the interests of reconciliation)
- PAD leaders to be held accountable
(even if the airport occupation charges are still being investigated, surely there are still outstanding charges from the government house occupation that can be acted upon in the meantime - IMO, getting Sondhi L in jail will go a long way towards moving the country forward)
- Lese Majeste & Internet crackdown
(looked at on it's own, without consideration of the political realities, the Democrats handling of this matter has been disgraceful - IMO, they should be setting a positive example and leading the debate on how to have the LM laws changed so that the monarchy can be kept out of politics)
- Reconciliation, Political/Constitutional reform
(on this matter, the Democrats have again let political considerations get in the way of simply doing what's right - IMO, they should work with the opposition to get a satisfactory amnesty bill and to get a consultative process going for constitutional reform)
This is what I said when Samak was removed:
"Samak is gone - even though the cooking show trigger for his demise was nonsensical, I wont be shedding a tear for him - had his chances to be reasonable, he wasn't, so I say good riddance!"
It is not hard to foresee a day when I will be saying something similar for Abhisit.



OK, I will try again. Here's my new advice to you - assuming you are still in power as I write this, and assuming of course, that you are now ready to start listening to me :)

1. Kasit must go (you now have another opportunity to do it, in the interests of reconciliation)

2. You must agree to liaise with the opposition regarding the amnesty bill
(basically the 111 banned politicians to have their political rights reinstated, draw a line in the sand and give blanket amnesty to all protest leaders except any who can be directly implicated in any criminal activity, and also to the pending LM & Computer crime cases)

3. Initiate a complete round of political reform, including using the 1997 constitution as the starting point, but also including amendments to the LM and Computer Crime laws, looking at and concisely defining the role of the privy council, implementing a strict permit system for future protests (to put some rules in place as so that the never ending supply of gullible and bloody minded protesters can be kept in check otherwise no government will ever be able to do anything) - surely there are enough great unbiased minds in Thailand that can come up with something appropriate, but if there are still contentious items then they will need to go to a referendum

4. Set a strict, but realistic timetable for the above political reform process, including a date for the next election to be held as soon as the new rules are in place.

5. Request that all parties/sides/colors take a step back from protesting, and invite them to instead get involved in the political reform process.

6. Strictly implement rule of law without fear or favour

7. Thaksin???? - I'm thinking that he is a special case and a negotiated settlement needs to be reached with him, but who does the negotiating? Off the top of my head, the best solution I can come up with is a special act of parliament requiring say 75% approval.
(it will mainly need to be a financial settlement, however the amount might depend on whether he enters binding commitments relating to the extent of his future political involvement).


As usual, its just general rambling to get it off my chest, and the real experts would need to work out ways to facilitate the legalities.

People Power

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Just wondering out loud - where will this all lead?

A few questions I have are:

1. What will victory look like?

2. What is Thaksin's future role?

3. Why has it taken Thaksin so long to start talking?

4. Is Thaksin really into the spirit of democracy?

5. If there is a dissolution, who will be the next PM

6. How will the cycle of protests ever end?

Clarification: The above questions are posed to a hypothetical scenario under which the current 'red' shirts achieve 'victory'.

I'm really struggling to come up with the answers to #1 and #2 because it sounds like the Reds basically want to turn back the clock to 2005/06 pre coup days - Does that mean victory means more tax havens, nominees, extra-judicial killings, manipulations of the institutions, and subversion of checks and balances???


I think the answer to #3 is fairly obvious - Thaksin only started talking because he was running out of options, and saw this as his last opportunity to make a push to get back the money.

I also don't think we should discount the 'loss of face' motivation - from my observations of Thai politics over two decades, avoidance of loss of face seems to rank right up there with that other motivating force for politicians: Greed.

For some reason, amongst politicians, especially the Thai variety, loss of face is seen as a sign of weakness, when in other circles the ability to admit mistakes is seen as a strength.

If the 'greed' and 'aversion to loss of face' characteristics were not so strong, then it seems fairly obvious that Thaksin would still be in power.
(although whether he would have got there in the first place without those motivators is another question!)

Unfortunately Thaksin has taken a long time to learn that lesson (if he has at all) and his two puppet PM successors also met similar fates due in no small part to failing to concede anything for fear of losing face/appearing weak.

Now Abhisit is walking the same path, when if only he had conceded on some points (like getting rid of Kasit for instance), then Thaksin would have found it much harder to garner mass support for the current uprising.

IMO, Thaksin had no excuses - with his unassailable electoral superiority he was the master of his own destiny , but Abhisit has been hamstrung by the way he came to power, the GFC, and having the Generals, Prem, Newin, PAD, Reds, Thaksin etc all breathing down his neck has had him walking a tightrope just waiting for the inevitable stumble.


If my answer to question #3 is correct, then the answer to #4 is also obvious.


Who will be the next PM if there are new elections? - you would think it would be a small field with the 111 still banned, but it seems to me the next PM will have to be a puppet of one or other of two prominent members of that banned list.
Whether it is a puppet of Thaksin or Newin will probably depend on how well their respective nominee parties do in the next election.


That leaves the big one: How will the cycle of protests ever end?

If we can extrapolate the motivating forces for the majority of politicians across to the military, business & royalist elites, then neither side will give up unless:

(a) they are adequately compensated under some sort of deal, which also needs to allow them to save face,
or
(b) they suffer such a crushing defeat that they are obliterated and have no hope of fighting back for decades (if ever).

This time it is unlikely to be the 'reds' that are obliterated, but dismantling the old network without replacing it with a new one, is not what I think Thaksin has in mind.


The above is all my perception of reality, so now here's something to dream about:

- Abhisit realizes that the majority of the Thai electorate want change, and he (they) also realize that going back to Thaksin is a dead end, so he (the Democrats) fully acknowledges the problems and goes to the electorate seeking a mandate to bring about that change, and is rewarded by the electorate (in good faith).

That dream can be added to the one I have about the succession where:
- Having acquired wisdom with maturity, the prince recognizes that his past actions make him unsuitable to be king and he withdraws in favor of his sister. Brother and sister work together to groom the prince’s children for the role after the princess’s reign ends.

Thaksin embraces Sufficiency Economy

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In addition to being a strong supporter of Democracy, my new guru is also a strong advocate for Sufficiency Economy:

'Deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra last night phoned in to extend moral support to the demonstrators and asked them to stay put for three more days.
"Tell your children to come," he told the crowd. "There is something here. Stop going to the mall for a couple of days and lay the foundation for future generations.
"I do not care whether I can return, I do not care. I cannot allow the country to go on like this.
"Let me be the last victim of the brutality of the bureaucratic polity."Thaksin also spoke in English to appeal to the international media, saying the fight was not about him but about the country and democracy for the people and future generations.'

At the sime time it was widely reported that Thaksin's own children had left the country - hopefully not to go shopping!