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I think it's clear now which way the current junta is going to proceed, so I'm re-opening my blog.
Might not blog for a little while as right now the situation seems so hopeless that I cannot come up with anything constructive.
Please check out the links listed on the left - those bloggers are doing a great job.
Update:
My feeling that the situation is hopeless stems from watching the 'reconciliation' actions of the current 'government' since they came to power.
Reading the various comments from many in the so called 'educated' class over the last few weeks, and observing the massive propaganda campaign currently underway within (and outside) Thailand has only reinforced my view that the end of the turmoil is nowhere in sight.
The brainwashed, and those with vested interests, have an unfair advantage over the rational & liberal voices in Thailand due to the LM laws and the Computer Crimes Act.
Such laws have forced some otherwise reasonable people to go 'underground' instead of being accepted into the system so that their talents can be utilized to help remake the Thai' system' of double standards into a fair, just and democratic society.
21 comments:
Hopeless.. well I don't know that that is true. Hezbollah and Hamas have not just rolled over and died and the Thai people need not do so either.
The model offered by both of those democratic, peoples' organizations is of a democratic structure built in parallel with the existing government. Writing off the existing government as having no value and instead creating structures that do have value for the people.
Hezbollah, especially, is now the power in Lebanon. If it were not for Hezbollah the country would be overrun by Israel, and everyone knows it. Hezbollah has a much more active military component than is needed in Thailand... at the present time. No one knows just how repressive the regime in Bangkok will become. More self defense for the people may be required in the future. I certainly hope not. But the stupidity of the Bangkok regime and its hatred for the Thai people do seem to know no bounds.
At any rate a peoples' service organization can be the means to stand-up a de facto democracy. Mobilizing the peoples' own resources it can set up credit unions, co-operatives, schools, and such organizations for the benefit of the people independently of the government. And when it is sufficiently strong, when democracy is firmly rooted in the countryside, it can move to field candidates and take over the governmental functions as well.
I think this is going to be essential because the government seems very likely to eliminate elections completely in the wake of their concerted efforts to make themselves hated by everyone in Thailand and therefore utterly unelectable.
It's not at all hopeless, really. Surely it is very difficult. But it is always very difficult to struggle against an oppressive force bent on keeping the people down, on eliminating them completely, at least from the political map.
Thanks JFL - Looking at the chatter over the last few weeks from people who should know better has left me feeling overwhelmed by their ignorance or vindictivness.
(I tend to wallow in it a bit when I don't see people adopting what I see as the obvious quickest solution).
btw, I've been staying away from Prachatai because everytime I go there I get a antivirus warning about trojans - maybe its something MICT has done?
http://holasionweb.com/oo.php is the proximate source of the malware, although I imagine that the page was hacked by the SLORC/CRES/ISOC and that the Evil Regime is the ultimate source. I had thought that prachatai had fixed it by now, but I guess not, huh?
I just tried a windows instance using ie, I assume that's what you use.
Click
tools -> internet options -> security
Then choose 'restricted sites'
Click the 'sites' button and a window will appear with the url of whatever site you are presently viewing in a textbox, ready to be blocked.
Replace that url with
http://holasionweb.com/
Click 'add', and then 'close', then 'ok'
Then you should be able to view
http://www.prachatai.org/english
Without having to kill your browser to eliminate the incessant popups and general harrassment of the ISOC.
This attack took place immediately after prachatai ran an article quoting some two-bit tin-star at the SLORC saying that they were going to hire outsiders to help them deny access to sites they couldn't stop by conventional means.
This is directly analogous to their hiring Yellow shirted thugs and renegade sharp shooters to commit murder and mayhem against ordinary, red shirted Thai people.
The SLORC/CRES/ISOC are truly the scum of the earth,
Don't use IE and tried a few things in FF but still get the AV warnings.
Think I'll just stay away until it gets fixed - don't think my voice adds much to the site anyway:)
If you use firefox you can add 'Adblock plus' which makes blocking malware and advertising of any sort trivial.
You ought to do so, even if you care not for prachatai. The SLORC will surely be unleashing such attacks from other venues.
The problem is that prachatai is allowing someone else to add to their content... maybe facebook... and that's where the attacks come from.
And you ought to go to prachatai, anyway. To witness and show support whether you post or not.
Slowly, or not so slowly, the SLORC will continue its attacks on free media of any sort and all sorts.
But perhaps you're our of the country now and have written us all of as residents of a failed state?
Tried that but the AV still goes mad, so maybe its the AV that has a problem?
Regarding the failed state issue, I can only see three possibilities for how the status quo can change:
1. The rulers change (heed the warnings and learn from the mess they have created in the south)
2. The reds get supported by the masses (the sympathizers, and the 'nuetrals') making it impossible for the junta to carry on
3. Violent revolution
My feeling of hopelessness arise because at this stage I don't see any signs of 1 or 2.
Well the regime is not going to "learn" anything. They already know that they are the minority and can rule only by force.
The majority in Thailand need not include the hard-core Bangkokians. Most of the people in Bangkok are Thais trying to eke out a baht to send home to Thailand. It seems to me that when the majority finally realizes that there ain't no man on a white horse gonna come and save 'em, that in fact they are the "only" ones who have their interests at heart, that surely they can then organize and do what needs to be done.
For those who actively took part in recent "organizing schools" held by the reds this is the call to apply what they've "learned" - primarily common sense - to the situation and to step up to leadership roles themselves.
The minority does not stand a chance of keeping the majority down once self-consciousness is raised on the part of the majority.
Violent revolution is a return to the past. It hasn't worked before... and it won't work now.
That's the way I see it at any rate. So I believe I am at your number two.
Unless and until the will to change infects the majority there will be no change. And not only in Thailand.
It's a pity about #1, but I hope you are right about #2 JFL, and thanks for cheering me up (a little:)
I guess you don't see Prachatai, but on impulse I ran a 'whois' on the IP address of someone styling themselves as 'Vichai N' there, and elsewhere as is now apparent.
Turns out he was sitting behind his desk in Jericho Long Island, working for a well-known spam bot, malware bot distribution center.
So it appears that the "extra forces" that the SLORC said it would muster in to augment it's "legitimate" censorship forces here in Thailand are the likes of "Vichai N" X 100. You see them all over now, although I don't know how many other sites have been made the subject of spam bot and malware bot attacks as has Prachatai.
They are creating the appearance of an army of bad guys... but they're all on the SLORC payroll.
I'm convinced now that the majority of REAL Thais are just like people all over the world, have it had "up to here" with these tin-pot dictators in Krungthep and that we'll soon see the backs of them!
I notice Vichai N has been posting a bit over at Absolutely Bangkok's site (link listed on the left) - seems to have found his home amongst kindred souls over there.
If you get a chance, please check out the Thailand Troubles and Siam Report blogs - they have been doing great work (as have you JFL - I hope you are right about the rise of REAL thai's).
Welcome back. I was worried you had been summoned by the CRES.
I can list a few things to be hopeful about, though I may not be as left-leaning as you:
1. I am hopeful that the core red leadership and constituents will not resort to violence and guerrilla tactics. The rest of Thailand will not become like the violence plagued south.
2. Bangkokians are sick of protest of ANY color. "Prevention" will be preferred to "crackdown" in the next round.
3. Thai people realize we need competent riot police. No decent person wants the military to shoot its own unarmed civilians.
4. Despite advances in medical science, no one has discovered a Fountain of Youth.
5. More international pressure on the government. If anything, more attention on the governments actions.
6. Twitter and the internet.
7. You can fool some people sometime, but you can't fool all the people all the time. (especially when people are not willing to be fooled anymore)
8. The decency of most Thai people.
Agree there is some hope, but overall I just cannot see any signs that the 'rulers' are prepared to do anything meaningful to avoid your #1 (other than try to crush it, which of course only makes it's occurrence even more inevitable)
In regards to #1, I think the 'rulers' are smart enough to know that they cannot survive if they ruthlessly and blatantly crush the majority. It's up to the reds to unite a true majority versus pushing occasional campaigns where they can be easily labeled as a minority funded by Mr. T.
Also, refer to #4 in reference to the term in quotes above. Can't say much more for obvious reasons.
I know where you are coming from, but as all the usual tricks are on display, I'm very sceptical that anything will change. I hope I'm wrong!
btw, what do you make of Anand's latest piece?
(personally, I'm not believing any of the smooth talkers - not until I see them walking the walk)
Agree re: Anand's piece. Sounds nice but actions will speak louder. That's part of the problem I have with the PM. He sounds like a reasonable guy, but actions are either non-existent or contradictory to his words. It's easy for the victor to call for reconciliation, but what about those defeated who have seen their comrades murdered? For genuine reconciliation, the PM has to make a significant sacrifice. So far, haven't seen anything...
You're outside Thailand so you should have no difficulty watching this video of the European Parliament, put up by Ji Ungpakorn.
I think its emblematic of the kind of response that is going to get louder the longer that the obvious requirement for an election in Thailand is stonewalled by the de facto government here.
Looks like you're done here, Hobby. I'm going to drop your bookmark. If you do pop back drop me a line. You had a nice run. Thanks.
Sorry, JFL, but I've not a lot to say in addition to what's already being said (by others in a way much better than I can say it)
I still comment here and there, but my anti-virus still shuts Prachatai down so hardly go there anymore.
I'm most active on Twitter, where the short sharp comments suit my lazy blogging style more.
Keep up your good work.
Hobby
The reason I have nothing much to say is that I don't think anything can improve until the LM laws are relaxed.
This is what I posted over at StanG's blog:
"the single best initiative to start the improvement of Thailand is the detoothing of the LM laws and Computer Crimes Act – The propaganda can then be seen for what it is, the education system improves, people learn to think, and you never know they may even elect someone like an Abhisit (pre his becoming the Butcher of Bangkok of course, only the uneducated, inhumane would elect the current Abhisit)
If you really care about Thailand and it’s people that’s what you should be campaigning for"
I also asked him what thinks about the detention of the Chula history professor, and whether the way Abhisit played the 1976 style royalty card was befitting of a PM or statesman (especially given the Thai propensity to brutality, which Abhisit should be aware of as there are plenty of 2519 videos are out there)
is Stan G also a CRES employee?
am I paranoid, blues under beds?
He toes the govt line on most things, but seem to recall he did call out the EC move on Dem's dissolution case as a ploy, and also was not backwards in suggesting who took out Seh Daeng.
Also, unlike the govt/CRES/MICT policy, he's never blocked any of my comments on his blog.
(but then again he did seem to think the CRES conspiracy map was credible, so who know's? :)
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