Monarchism, Royalism, Religion?

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You choose which definition is closest to what Thai Royalism has become:
Monarchism

Royalism

Religion



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History Repeating? (no more please)

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At a time of fear, when the military is effectively a member of the government coalition, and the new army chief is saying things like "everyone is obligated, in an act of loyalty, to root out certain individuals", it's worth remembering the past, and hope that lessons have been learnt.

We all know about Thaksin's popular "drug war", and the October 1973 and 1976 massacres, but less is known of the horrific efforts to suppress communist suspects in the south in the early 1970's:


Policy of government to "decisively flush out"
"merely followed orders"


Arrested and most underwent "re-education"

They bore no grudges.











"Each side claimed to fight for a better ruling system"




"Danger lurked in every corner"



























































(h/t to James)

Something Constructive

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A nice blog here on some excellent proposals by a group of law professors at Thammasart University, led by Dr Worajet Pakirat.

Lets hope Thai politicians, and the Thai people get behind this very sensible (and much needed) proposal.

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Dispelling the myth that yellow shirts only protested peacefully

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Red's fatal mistakes

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I stumbled across the above video, which reminded me of my watching the final moments of the Redshirts protest on 19th May (with one eye on the PTV online broadcast, and the other eye on Twitter updates).

Unbelievably, we still see claims that the redshirt leaders were cowards and hid behind their followers (see comment #20 here for example).
Watch the video above, and also take note who suffered the vast majority of deaths and injury - surely that tells any rational observer which side was at most risk during the protest period, and also remember that the red leaders went on stage every day, even after Seh Daeng was so blatantly gunned down in the vicinity of foreign journalsist interviewing him.
What's really perverse is that those ridiculous cowardice claims most often come from staunch supporters of Abhisit, the PM who hid out at a military barracks for over a month, and from the types who were openly calling for a brutal crackdown.
(Note to students: It might be a good project for a thesis to trace some of those such comments on twitter - if anyone is so inclined, the Google 'updates' search function should be useful)

Looking back on the protest it becomes very clear that the redshirt leaders made two big mistakes:

Firstly they should have more clearly distanced themselves from the armed MIB. An overblown military with their fingers in every pie, is one of the major problems in Thailand, so while accepting help (or turning a blind eye to help) from one military faction against another might seem a good strategy for 'victory', that sort of victory would make them no better than the cabal they are trying to remove.

The second major mistake was that the leaders, and the followers, underestimated the double standard that they so often railed against. Having watched the antics of the yellow PAD have considerable success, with no punishment (even reward in the case of Foreign Minister Kasit), the reds foolishly thought all that was required to bring down a government was to maintain a protest long enough to force the government to call an election, or for a coalition partner to jump ship under the pressure.
What's clear now is that strategy only works if you are wearing the 'right' colour, and have the 'right' people backing you.


Here's a selection of tweets I extracted from the closing moments of the protest:

terryfrd: nattawud. Please listen to me,he tells protesting crowd. Today is one more time that we have had to make a difficult decision.

RichardBarrow: Nattawud telling the red shirt protesters at Rathchaprasong that they will surrender. Crowd disagrees.

terryfrd‎: We will have to wait for another chance. I declare we are ending the rally at this site, but not our struggle. Nattawud announces.

georgebkk‎: Nattawud: our fight will proceed according to democracy; I know you don't want to hear this but we cannot hold off the situation.

Nikky_Bangkok‎: Nattawud: We (the leaders) are willing to sacrifice our freedom to save lives. Please listen to me one more time. Please listen to me.

terryfrd: nattawud: This has not turned out the way we expected, but we have done our best. We will exchange our freedom for you.

sutatip_b‎: We have to wait for another chance. I declare we are ending the rally at this site, but not our struggle Nattawud announces

terryfrd: Nattawud: we have tried our best for the sake of the country, but when we see so much death, it has to stop. (Shouts of protest)

terryfrd‎: We are ending our rally here so that we can continue our struggle for democracy, nattawud says. I appeal to you, (explosions)

georgebkk: Nattawud: I know you can't accept, but we have assessed the situation thoroughly (Police entering area in force with shields)

RichardBarrow‎: Everyone jumpy as gunshots heard - Nattawud still talking but surrounded by team now - everyone jittery

s_narut‎: Another gunshot, UDD guard surround Nattawud, afraid of assignation attempt.

terryfrd‎: Leaders on stage are very uneasy looking around.Nattawud abruptly ends his announcement.Comes back and says for crowd to go to Nat'l stadium

RichardBarrow‎: Nattawud making an announcement on the PA system that they are turning themselves in. Don't worry about us. It will be done by the law

RichardBarrow‎: Nattawud: Don't worry. We won't lose our freedom for a long time. Everyone go home safely.

(Hobby: Still underestimating the double standard, right till the end)

s_narut‎: Nattawud still asking protestors to go home from inside of police HQ

terryfrd‎: Nattawud makes annoucnement. Don't worry about us,he tells supporters. We are safe and will enter legal process.

Nikky_Bangkok‎: Nattawud speaking live from Natl Police HQ. Tells protesters not to worry, all UDD leaders safely in custody.

RichardBarrow‎: Nattawud: We chose to fight bravely. Thank you everyone.

terryfrd: Today is not our day, says nattawud. many have been killed and injured.After this is over, if you still have trust in us, ...

terryfrd‎: If you no longer have faith in our leadership, we will become ordinary red-shirt members, nattawud says.

terryfrd: Under SOE, the charges against us arean't all that serious, he says, so go home, nattawud tells upset supporters. Go Nat'l stadium

RichardBarrow: Nattawud: THe police will look after you. Please go to the national stadium and the police will look after you

(Hobby: but those soldiers on the Skytrain line wont)

haroldrolloos‎: Leaders of the red shirts - Nattawud and Jattuporn - in #Bangkok are arrested, but the reds don't give up.

terryfrd‎: Nattawud, says that after the senators accepted role as mediators, govt closed the door and began crackdown.

terryfrd‎: Arson attempts, riots, grenades, etc. may wipe Nattawud & Jatuporn surrender speeches off front pages. Not good for reds or Puea Thai. (Hobby: For once I agree with Terry:)

I don't condone any of the violence that took place during the protest, or the burning afterwards, but I can certainly understand the anger and frustration of redshirts at how one colour has been so protected and encouraged, yet the redshirts end up being killed just for asking for an election (the main purpose of which was to try to undo an illegal military coup).

btw, for anyone who thinks the coup was legal and there was no choice but to endorse it, please see this and this.

This is probably just a one-off blog post, however comments are still welcome.
:)

Bye Bye Thailand

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My conclusion is that there is no hope of any real improvement until the LM laws are made toothless.

The LM laws are the glue that binds everything that keeps the status quo.

All debate on the systemic problems is stifled by the 15 year jail sentence hanging over the heads of anyone who steps too far in talking about (or even seeking) the truth - those that the brainwashing has not affected, then either play along to reap the rewards (vested interest) or opt for self censorship (understandable self interest).

The list of names in my previous blog shows what happens to those who push a little further.

It's a brilliant setup, the trap is now complete - after decades of one sided propaganda, no political party can touch on the subject of detoothing LM without committing political suicide.

Parliamentary debates are worthless when all any ambitious arsehole has to do is invoke the monarchy's name and stage a coup (or suppress a protest that merely seeks an election)

Sorry to call a spade a spade, but there is no hope of any change until nature takes it's course, and even then I think there's a certain person who's reputation is such that the charade will be allowed to carry on for a few more decades until the next semi-divine character is groomed.

Jakrapob has seen how things work from the inside, and he tried to explain it in his talk at the the FCCT a few years ago, and also with his "a State within a State' article.












I just want to see the society be allowed to see all sides of the 'truth', have open and rational debate, fix the systemic problems that are stopping the country from moving on to a fairer, more just society, instead of the endless cycle of repression, protest, killing, coup etc continuously repeating like a broken record.

How can that happen when the LM law creates a climate of fear, and perpetuates the status quo?
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Knowledge is Power

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Why are these very well educated, articulate, seemingly reasonable and 'harmless' Thai people in detention, jailed or exiled?

- Suthachai Yimpresert - several days detention at army base, finally released after going on a hunger strike


- Jakrapob Penkair - charged with LM, in exile


- Giles Ji Ungpakorn - charged with LM, in exile


- Darunee Charnchoensilpakul (also known as Da Torpedo) - 18 years jail after a closed trial


What have they said or done that necessitates such draconian government measures against them?
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The Days that we Die

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by Loudon Wainwright III

Dedicated to anyone who's listening (and especially to those who should be:)
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Hiatus ended

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I think it's clear now which way the current junta is going to proceed, so I'm re-opening my blog.

Might not blog for a little while as right now the situation seems so hopeless that I cannot come up with anything constructive.

Please check out the links listed on the left - those bloggers are doing a great job.

Update:
My feeling that the situation is hopeless stems from watching the 'reconciliation' actions of the current 'government' since they came to power.
Reading the various comments from many in the so called 'educated' class over the last few weeks, and observing the massive propaganda campaign currently underway within (and outside) Thailand has only reinforced my view that the end of the turmoil is nowhere in sight.

The brainwashed, and those with vested interests, have an unfair advantage over the rational & liberal voices in Thailand due to the LM laws and the Computer Crimes Act.
Such laws have forced some otherwise reasonable people to go 'underground' instead of being accepted into the system so that their talents can be utilized to help remake the Thai' system' of double standards into a fair, just and democratic society.

Checkmate or Stalemate?

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Unfortunately PAD/yellows set the precedent of how to overthrow a government (aided & abetted by the usual players, and you know who)

Compare how Thaksin (a legitimately elected PM) dealt with protests against his premiership, to the way Abhisit is KILLING just to AVOID an election.

It's a stalemate:
Reds won't go home till Abhisit sets an early election, and Abhisit won't even talk until red's go home.

The two choices are:

1. Red's go home --> but they have no guarantee from Abhisit (and unfortunately his word cannot be trusted anyway - just look at what he said and did as opposition leader, how he became PM, and how he talked of reconciliation but did the exact opposite)

or

2. Abhisit dissolves parliament --> the red's go home immediately - no if's or but's.


The solution to ending the violence seems clear.
(violence which, by the way, seems very one-sided - why is that?)

Unfortunately Abhisit's killing spree has made things so much worse, which probably suits those backing him, as they don't much like elections anyway.
(free & fair elections especially are the thing they must avoid at all costs, being the only weak point in their hegemony of Thailand)


A few extra questions:

- What is the 'glue' that holds the current coalition in place?
(when previous stronger looking coalition governments have collapsed under much less pressure than this latest killing spree of redshirts)
What powerful figures are keeping things together, and how?

- What has Newin Chidchob been up to lately?
(remember the 'blue shirts' involvement during the April 2009 uprising?)

- Is the 'revered' institution happy to stand aside and see so many Thai get killed?
(possibly they have been influenced by Prem's strong recommendation for all to read a certain article by Chirmsak Pinthong last December?)

What's changed (except the body count)?

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Avoiding Civil War - It's not Rocket Science
(originally posted 22/4/2010)

Neither side is innocent, each thinks it’s defending against attacks by the other, but bottom line is one side wants democracy and the other side wants to limit it (or sometimes ‘allow’ it, but only to the extent it doesn’t upset their applecart). NO CHANGE

There can be no doubt now that the supposedly more ‘educated’ are actually just as brainwashed as the ‘kwai’, and if not brainwashed then they are ‘jai dum’, which IMO is much worse. NO CHANGE

So the solution is still what it has always been - just trust the population as a whole, and allow democracy, without the interference! NO CHANGE

There can be no justification for (another) crackdown when there is a clear and simple solution. NO CHANGE

Forget about Thaksin – he’s history – it’s much bigger than him now, and the people won't allow his style of democracy any more than they will allow the old 'thai style democracy'.

Not one more drop of blood need be shed, and if it is, then the blame will clearly be with those who refuse to let the people have an immediate say on what they think of all the events that have happened since the 2006 military coup.
(That say needs to be at the ballot box - an election is the only poll that counts!) NO CHANGE, EXCEPT MORE BLOOD HAS ALREADY BEEN NEEDLESSLY SHED

Today, Abhisit needs to announce an immediate house dissolution, and an immediate cessation of the state of emergency.
Protesters of all sides must then go home, and the ballot box is the place for their voice to be heard. NO CHANGE

In the lead up to the elections, all the leaders should promote tolerance of opposing views, and present their case against those views in a civil manner. They should also ask their supporters to respect fully the electoral decision of the country as a whole, and not seek to interfere with or obstruct the new government. NO CHANGE, EXCEPT SONDHI L HAS RE-ENTERED THE FRAY, AND SURPRISE, SURPRISE, HE STILL HAS FASCIST TENDENCIES:
"does not believe in the majoritarian system because Parliament is a place of evil. He will fight against the one-man-one-vote system because he wants a ‘Dharma-ocracy’ instead. If Mr Abhisit cannot achieve it, there should be a military coup. He adds that no one is bloodthirsty but is just doing their duties"

As for what to do with all the pending cases & investigations, we all know that there will not be equal justice for all the wrongdoers, so (sadly) the only way to get fair closure is to draw a line in the sand AS OF TODAY - amnesty for all, including any banned politicians no matter what colour, for the events up to today, however after today each and every illegal act to be prosecuted fairly, without discrimination or favor - it's the only way the country can move forward. THE ONLY THING I'D CHANGE HERE IS MOVE THE LINE BACK TO 9th APRIL 2010, AS WAY TOO MANY LIVES HAVE BEEN LOST AND THEIR DEATHS MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO BE SWEPT UNDER THE CARPET LIKE HAS HAPPENED SO REGULARLY IN THAILAND'S PAST.

UNFORTUNATELY I HAVE GRAVE DOUBTS WHETHER THE THAI 'JUSTICE' SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF DEALING WITH THE INVESTIGATIONS, AND NOTE THAT THAILAND HAS NOT RATIFIED ITS BECOMING A STATE PARTY UNDER THE INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT (PERHAPS THAT EXPLAINS WHY FOREIGN NATIONALS INCLUDING JOURNALISTS SEEM TO BE 'FAIR GAME' TO THE THAI MILITARY?)

Please do it, Abhisit - for the sake of your country and for your own redemption.

IT'S NOT TOO LATE FOR YOUR COUNTRY
(BUT YOU WILL NEED TO PUT IN A NUMBER OF YEARS HARD WORK FOR RECONCILIATION, JUSTICE, FAIRNESS, AND RULE OF LAW TO BE IN A POSITION TO EXPECT REDEMPTION - UNLESS YOU'VE ALREADY GOT THE NOD FOR THE OTHER REWARD GIVEN TO ROGUE THAI PM'S)

Loyalty & Sympathy

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As previously blogged, Abhisit & his minders are playing hardball with the old royalty card trick - it's worked before, so they are trying it again.

As far as I know all red leaders, and Thaksin, have continiously expressed loyalty and admiration for the King, and have never expressed any desire to remove the monarchy.
Likewise the red rank and file express their love for the king.

The $64,000 question is whether the love is genuine, or enforced?
A sub question might be: Would the love be genuine if all sides to the story were allowed to be aired?

The only way to know the answer would be to remove to LM law.
(Did I just explain why the LM law hasn't been removed? :)

Anyway, here's some interesting quotes from a great essay and comments on New Mandala:

Thongchai Winichakul: "The mass base of the Reds is people who remain deeply religious, nationalistic, and royalist, although with some disappointment at the royals. The leaders of the UDD reflect the politics of their people. They have not shown any signs of anti-monarchy but to the contrary. The strongest comment is disappointment and they beg for some royal sympathy"

Aladdin: "I believe that the lese majeste law and the incessant propaganda about the monarchy may be leading to an underestimation of the real extent of “anti-monarchy” feeling in Thailand. This is very dangerous for the future of the monarchy.
The sooner that the problem of the monarchy can be talked about openly, and proposals discussed to reform it, the safer its future"

Food for thought :)

Lese Majeste report?

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A few days ago I received the following twitter message:

jazzinchiangmaiRT@Nganadeeleg "pearls of wisdm frm X who failed 2 mention the pol. crisis, the gov, the milit or the killings" http://LMLINK Lese M Much?

I didn't pay much intention, but it has since been brought to my attention that it could be a threat to report me for LM.

If it was indeed a threat, or even an actual report to the LM police, I would like to bring the investigators attention to this thread on New Mandala where Nganadeeleg (= Hobby = Me) features more than a few times.
I recommend the investigators make that thread the starting point of your investigations against me, then work your way through this blog chronologically.
(blog archive is shown at the lower left portion of the front page)

Hope you find it amusing & like the music (and you might even learn some latin from the NM thread:)

I also recommend you read Giles latest post "It's about Democracy, stupid"

Update:
This blog (and I) remain open to alternative viewpoints - if anyone has differing conclusions to the ones I have so far reached, please post your comments which I am happy to take on board, based on the strength of your argument (as judged by ..... me:)

However, any argument that ignores or dismisses the military coup, and the obvious interference and double standard in Thailand, is unlikely to persuade me.
Likewise, an argument along the line that conditions are not right for elections within 3 months (for whatever reasons) is unlikely to be considered by me to have much merit, as I foresee the consequences of any alternatives as much worse - with the possible exception of a (fully inclusive) national unity government.

Bring it on! (where's Nick Cave & Chris Bailey when you need them?)

Abhisit is not fit to lead!

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More proof that Abhisit offers nothing towards a better Thailand - he's reaching into an empty well when all he can come up with is the same old 'reds under the bed' type scaremongering.

Abhisit had a choice - he could really have tried to make Thailand a more inclusive society, worked towards more equality, fairness and justice, but he chose the exact opposite route - find scapegoats, jail dissidents, limit the free flow of information, propagandise and scare the rest into compliance.

If he really was about reconciliation and helping move Thailand forward, instead of giving credence to plots created in the imagination of ASTV/The Manager fiction writers and using repression to cow the populace into submission, wouldn't he be pushing for an opening up of opportunities for discussion and analysis of the thai political system, including the role of the monarchy, and trying to have the LM laws relaxed so that free and open discussion can take place?

It's becoming much clearer that people like Abhisit, Sansern, Prayuth (and others who shall remain unnamed) are the real terrorists in Thailand.
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Avoiding Civil War - It's not Rocket Science

Neither side is innocent, each thinks it’s defending against attacks by the other, but bottom line is one side wants democracy and the other side wants to limit it (or sometimes ‘allow’ it, but only to the extent it doesn’t upset their applecart).

There can be no doubt now that the supposedly more ‘educated’ are actually just as brainwashed as the ‘kwai’, and if not brainwashed then they are ‘jai dum’, which IMO is much worse.

So the solution is still what it has always been - just trust the population as a whole, and allow democracy, without the interference!

There can be no justification for (another) crackdown when there is a clear and simple solution.

Forget about Thaksin – he’s history – it’s much bigger than him now, and the people won't allow his style of democracy any more than they will allow the old 'thai style democracy'.

Not one more drop of blood need be shed, and if it is, then the blame will clearly be with those who refuse to let the people have an immediate say on what they think of all the events that have happened since the 2006 military coup.
(That say needs to be at the ballot box - an election is the only poll that counts!)

Today, Abhisit needs to announce an immediate house dissolution, and an immediate cessation of the state of emergency.
Protesters of all sides must then go home, and the ballot box is the place for their voice to be heard.

In the lead up to the elections, all the leaders should promote tolerance of opposing views, and present their case against those views in a civil manner. They should also ask their supporters to respect fully the electoral decision of the country as a whole, and not seek to interfere with or obstruct the new government.

As for what to do with all the pending cases & investigations, we all know that there will not be equal justice for all the wrongdoers, so (sadly) the only way to get fair closure is to draw a line in the sand AS OF TODAY - amnesty for all, including any banned politicians no matter what colour, for the events up to today, however after today each and every illegal act to be prosecuted fairly, without discrimination or favor - it's the only way the country can move forward.

Please do it, Abhisit - for the sake of your country and for your own redemption.
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Thailand's Trouble's

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A great blog I've only just come across is Thailand's Troubles, which has a nice summary of the current situation.

Of course, the elephant in the room is still skirted around (for obvious reason) which unfortunately means the real systematic problems that are stopping Thailand from progressing are not being addressed.
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No Justification to crush Pro-Democray protests

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Update 2: This Bangkok Post report gives details of the equipment the government lost in their 'non-violent' dispersal attempt on that Saturday:
"Among the firearms and other equipment claimed to have been lost during the clash were nine M16 rifles, 25 Tavor rifles, six anti-aircraft guns, 116 shields, 105 batons and 80 body armour suits.
The army also lost control of six personnel carriers and three high-mobility multi-purpose vehicles when troops abandoned them in the face of angry red shirts.
Ammunition also went missing, including 580 rubber bullet rounds, 600 anti-aircraft rounds and 8,182 M16 rifle rounds"
Any conclusions other than:
(a) government had violent 'intentions', and was incompetent?
or
(b) the equipment was left behind by watermelon soldiers to help in subsequent battles?

Update 1: This post was originally posted before the crackdown as a plea for it to not happen - after the actual crackdown, and especially after Abhisit's late night tv speech, all I can say is that I've completely given up on him. It's hard for me to believe he is even human, he's certainly no better than Thaksin, and probably much worse. Thaksin's drug war killings at least had a noble intention - there is nothing noble about Abhisit's killing to avoid going to an election!

How long can things go on like this, without one side going for broke and the shit hitting the fan?

Abhisit is the new face on an old playbook - the old style crackdowns are no longer viable, so it needs a respectable face to try to spin it as though there was no alternative but to crackdown.

I hope the red leaders are fully switched on to that aspect of what Abhisit is doing, because even though the pro-democracy side of this conflict has right on their side, they must also be seen to be reasonable.
(To spell it out: Abhisit wants to appear reasonable, and make other side appear unreasonable - the emphasis is on 'appear' in both cases)

Abhisit knows very well this aspect of the political game. He came to power promising reconciliation, he appeared very reasonable, but his real actions have not been about reconciliation at all:
- How does appointing, then keeping Kasit as FM, help reconcilation?
- How does stonewalling on the constitutional reform help reconcilation?
- How does closing PTV help reconcilation (when ASTV & NBT are still on air)?
- How does blocking Prachatai (and hassling the webmaster with lengthy jail terms) help reconciliation?
- How does stalling on bringing PAD international airport invaders to justice help reconcilation?
- Now that the boot is on the other foot, how does a complete about-face shown on statements he made regarding protesters rights, and PM's resigning, help bring about reconciliation ?
(for more examples see this revealing piece by one of Thailand's best journalists)


He is doing it again - appearing reasonable, but the reality is very different:- He offers to talk with red leaders, but creates excuses why elections cannot be held till at least 9 months have passed.
Forget about 9 months! How can the red masses, who have had their votes usurped so blatantly, be forced to endure another month, week, or even a day of living under a military/judiciary coup installed puppet PM who talks reconciliation, but in reality does everything he can to keep those masses disenfranchised?

PM Abhisit has also appeared very reasonable in dealing with protestors over the last few weeks, but if you look at all the other times he appeared reasonable, the reality was much different - you get my drift ?- the stakes have been upped in recent days - quite scary don't you think?
The world must not let him, or his minders, get away with thinking that a crackdown against pro-democracy protesters can ever be acceptable - especially when an easy solution is readily available.

I have focussed on Abhisit because he is the face of the current military/royalist overlords - we know he is expendable, but right now he's the man in the box seat, so he still has a chance to gain real legitimacy with the people. If he acted with integrity, you never know, the Thai people might warm to him, and he could one day even become a legitimate elected PM.

His first step on that road to legitimacy should be to offer dissloution/election within 3 months (Dr Weng has already said reds would accept that).

The people will never be more informed than they already are. The air would then be cleared, and the new parliament could then embark on the genuine constitutional reform process so the country can start moving forwards again.

That is the obvious solution, it is also the right thing to do given the considerable doubts as to his legitimacy arising from military & judicial interventions over the last 4 years.

No amount of smooth talking spin will ever justify a crackdown on pro-democracy protesters when there is a viable solution readily available.
Remember, no redshirt has ever said they will not accept the results of a fair election, so it should be abundantly clear they are not the real problem in Thailand.

The real problem is that there is no culture of democracy. Such a culture can only begin to develop when all sides accept election results and reject military coups or other forms of higher authority interference.

The Great Thailand Eye Opening

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The current red protests are proving to be a good eye opening to the Thai people, and the world, to the charade that is Thai 'democracy'.

The 2006 royalist endorsed military coup, the actions of 'non political' players in events leading up to the coup, and since, have put further pieces in the jigsaw that is 'thai style democracy'.

Whilst most tourists to Thailand don't care about Thai politics as long as they can keep getting what they crave (be it cheap, depraved or exotic), and expat businessmen similarly are only really interested in their bottom line, slowly but surely more light is being shone on matters that the 'natural' order of things in Thailand mean are supposed to be taboo.

All manner of discussions are taking place in print, film, radio, Internet and in private, in Thai, English and no doubt many other languages.

There is still considerable risk, particularly if one is a Thai in Thailand, as evidenced by the continued use of the draconian LM laws and Computer Crimes Act, against people who try to seek the truth and allow open discussion. Tantawut Taweewarodomkul and Prachatai webmaster, Chiranuch Premchaiporn are the latest victims, and add to a growing list of pending cases and convictions.

It seems Thailand is being analysed within and without, and the analysis is not just limited to obscure papers and academic journals.

Whilst the cut and thrust of the day to day colour coded politics is boring to me and I abhor Thaksin as much as I abhor Abhisit (or John Howard, George Bush, and lately Kevin Rudd etc etc), I find the bigger picture issues related to the thai system/structure quite fascinating.

I hope I'm wrong, but my gut feeling tells me continued injustice over a long period of time will inevitably breed terrorism in one form or other.

Thai style democracy is built on a noble lie, and once enough people question that lie, it has to either collapse, or be enforced - the old system can no longer function in the same way because it's foundation brick (the noble lie) has been removed.

IMO, to enforce the noble lie leads ultimately to a North Korea or Burma style future for Thailand, or more likely the southern insurgency being replicated in the north east and the north, however such insurgencies would unlikely be so 'polite' as to stay away from the capital.

The alternative to enforcement of the noble lie is to allow democracy (or 'mob rule' as Plato thought of it:)

That's the battle as I see it, and whilst I had sympathy for the original PAD protests against Thaksin's excesses, if its a choice between yellow and red, (or even red and non red, or yellow and non yellow) I now believe the non yellow or red side is the only side which offers a positive future for Thailand.
(Note: These are my views only, and do not imply that the red shirt protesters or leaders agree with my outlook - rather it means I side with the reds in the current battle because they are the only side offering anything that looks like real democracy - if another group offers democracy I will also likely side with them too)

And looking on the bright side, the elite backed military & judiciary coups, which sporned the red movement and increasing analysis of 'thai style democracy', has also contributed greatly to the democratic knowledge of the Thai people (and one Thaksin Shinawatra) - so that can only be good for the next time a popular leader is elected.
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Abhisit offers a solution???

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I may have been a bit harsh on Abhisit - he appears to have offered an alternative solution (not the 9 months delay) and the Red leaders either missed, or ignored that offer.

Get the tapes out - Did Abhisit offer a referendum on dissolution?

If Abhisit did make the offer, Day 3 talks should centre on pinning him down on a quick timetable for a combined referendum/election.

The process is simple - Thanks to the following comment by The truth is out there on Bangkok Pundit's excellent site.

"Two things come to my mind.

“make a decision based on a consensus from the entire country”

It reminds me about recall election in California. The process is quite straight forward and efficient. There are two question.
1. Do you want to recall a Governor (Do you want a new election?)
2. If majority vote for recall, who do you want to vote for?

So basically, you start by ask people if they want a new election. So problem of "hearing the the consensus of entire country is answered". If the answer is no, the second question is moot.

The nice thing is that if the answer is yes, you don't need to spend extra money for election.

Every body seem to miss one point that new election does not guarantee PT to win sufficient majority. Most likely, they will win big but probably not big enough to form government by themselves. IMO, the foot print of PT after election will be fairly similar to what it is now. It is highly possible that Dem and current coalition can win sufficient majority to form a stable government. And it will be very legit one.

Day 2 roundup: Is he afraid or is he under orders?

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Red's say 15 days, Abhisit says 9 months

Some will think the reds are unreasonable for not accepting Abhisit's timetable, but would you be so patient in their circumstances?

For all the talk, accusations, bluster & delaying, doesn't it all come down to one question:

Do you believe in democracy or not?

Democracy is not perfect, but is anyone aware of a better system?

Like it or not, Abhisit's legitimacy IS in doubt - does anyone seriously dispute that?

No amount of smooth talking can get away from the fact that PM Abhisit is the illegitimate child of a military & judicial coup, but, there is a clear way for him to gain legitimacy, and remove once and for all any doubts.

To resolve the obvious doubt on his legitimacy, all he need do is ask the people decide, and he needs to do it as soon as possible for the sake of the country.

The current government has been in place since Dec08, another 15 days will make it nearly 500 days too many for anyone who truly believes in democracy - does Abhisit seriously expect those who have had their votes stolen to wait patiently for another 300 days?
How insensitive can he be to the spirit of democracy?

All his excuses about needing to manage the economy, amend the constitution etc, are just that: EXCUSES.

Is more, or less, economic damage likely if things are left to continue to fester?

Minor coalition parties concerns about the constitution seem insignificant when the country is in such an stalemate, and anyway, it's the Reds parties that have been punished most under the current military imposed constitution, yet they appear to be prepared to go to an election EVEN with the current rules stacked against them!

We need to ask ourselves, why doesn't Abhisit want to prove his legitimacy?
Does he believe in democracy ot not?
Is he afraid, or is he under orders?
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